Welcome to Boostly Podcast Episode 551.
The Future of Hospitality Expert Predictions is a roundtable discussion hosted by Will Slickers of hospitality.fm. The panel is composed of hospitality experts from different segments, such as short-term rentals, hotels, and luxury restaurants, who share their predictions for 2023 and beyond.
The discussion aims to be interactive and engaging, with no boring presentations or slides. The panelists introduce themselves, mentioning their names, company, and podcast.
They include Stacy St. John, founder of the Female Short-Term Rental Investors Facebook group and the Short Term Rental Society; Brandy Canali, the COO of Sextant Stays; Natalie Palmer, founder of Host with Natalie and Level Up Your Listing; Mike Sjogren, founder of Short-Term Rental Secrets; Mark Simpson, founder of Boostly; and Steve, Michael, and others.
The discussion promises to be a game changer for the hospitality industry, with experts sharing their insights on what's to come in 2023.
Here's the video for this episode:
Timestamps (audio)
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Transcript from the Episode
[00:00:00] Will: All right everybody. Welcome to our first hospitality.fm Influencer Roundtable. I'm Will Slickers and I host multiple podcasts within our hospitality network, but also very excited to mostly moderate this time and be the man that's not having to speak so much and really let everyone kind of do the speaking and the talking.
[00:00:21] We are all in different segments of hospitality. We have experts from short-term rentals to hotels, to luxury restaurants. You name it, we are gonna cover it today. And so if you are tuning in on the live, we're gonna try to make this as engaged as possible. So if you're on LinkedIn, YouTube, or any of the other streaming platforms that we are pushing this audio and video to make sure that you stick through everybody's presentation and know there's not gonna be any slides and boring like presentations.
[00:00:51] It's really just gonna be experts sharing their predictions for 2023 and what they expect for the year ahead and. Maybe even further on how it's gonna impact [00:01:00] hospitality. So I'm excited to introduce everybody. I'm gonna take myself offscreen, and then we're gonna go one by one. Let everyone introduce themselves by name, company, and podcast that they're a part of, and then we will jump in to our predictions for 2023.
[00:01:15] So thank you everybody for tuning in once again, and now for the main show. We're gonna welcome everybody to the podcast here. All right, look at all these beautiful and handsome faces. So excited. How is everyone doing? Kind of with a, you know, nod of, without talking over to each other and stuff, you can do.
[00:01:34] All cool. Awesome. Sweet. So I already introduced myself. I'm gonna go ladies first, and we're gonna have Stacy St. John, who was one of the first ones to join us on the back end of the stage to introduce herself, her company, and her podcast. And then we'll actually just go in order from Stacy, Brandy, Natalie, Michael.
[00:01:54] Mark, Steve, Michael again. So not to give away everyone's names if you don't know who they are, but [00:02:00] Stacy, go ahead and take it away.
[00:02:03] Stacy: Hey everybody, glad to be here. My name is Stacy St. John and I am the proud, uh, founder of the Female Short-Term Rental Investors Facebook group and the Short Term Rental Society.
[00:02:16] I have a property portfolio under the brand of Cozy Getaways and I am super duper proud of my brand new podcast called the s t r Sisterhood. It's good to be here. Will thank you for having me.
[00:02:29] Will: Of course. And we love working with you on your podcast and watching it grow crazy, so very excited. Now we'll kick it off to Brandy.
[00:02:39] Brandy: Hi, I'm Brandy Canali. I'm the c o o of Sextant Stays based in Miami, and I am Will and Michael's co-host on Good Morning Hospitality.
[00:02:49] Will: Love it and we love having you on the show. It's been such a game changer having you on . Thank you. And here we go to Natalie.
[00:02:57] Natalie: Hi everyone. I am Natalie Palmer and I am the [00:03:00] founder of Host with Natalie, which is a boutique vacation rental management company in Big Bear.
[00:03:05] And I'm also the founder of co-founder of Level Up Your Listing, which is an all women's summit, um, next month in Scottsdale. And I'm the host of No Vacancy, the podcast,
[00:03:15] Will: so many awesome ventures and so excited for Scottsdale. So can't wait to see all of you there. And then next we have Mr. Mike Sjogren. So I will let you take the floor.
[00:03:27] Mike: Hey, yeah, excited to be here. Mike Sjogren, uh, based out of Boston, Massachusetts, founder of Short-Term Rental Secrets. Uh, we've got the podcast, also the co-founder of the S T R Wealth Con that's coming up here in, uh, in March. And, uh, yeah, just glad to be here and be with some, uh, amazing folks on this panel.
[00:03:49] Will: Awesome. Well, we're excited to have you and Mark Simpson, the one and only Boost Lees. Let's let let you, uh, kick it off here.
[00:03:57] Mark: Hi, my name is Mark Simpson, founder of Boostly [00:04:00] and one of the co-hosts of the Boost Hospitality Podcasts. Uh, yeah, thank you very much for having me and obviously tuning in from, uh, from the uk.
[00:04:07] So yeah, thanks for having everybody.
[00:04:10] Will: Thanks for staying up so late for us there, mark. Appreciate you. And now Steve Turk, my main man in Miami. Let's go.
[00:04:17] Steve: We got a Steve Turk we'll say, A hospitality entrepreneur, hospitality consultant, a partner at Tangy Management, where we have a short-term rentals across South Florida and the host of the Hospitality Mentor
[00:04:28] Will: Podcast, man, that podcast voice, it's Chris.
[00:04:31] I love it. Way to go. Way to go. All right. And then now we got, uh, Mr. Michael Golden. Let you introduce yourself. Good.
[00:04:40] Michael: Uh, I don't have quite the same voice as Steve, but I am Michael Golden, c o o and co-founder of Storied Collection and the co-host with Will and Brandy on Good Morning Hospitality.
[00:04:53] Will: I love it.
[00:04:54] And it looks like Mr. Mike Sjogren has some wifi stuff. He's gonna hop back in here shortly, so will just continue [00:05:00] on, uh, without him real quick. But just to say hello, we have a couple comments. Richard Crum, uh, we got Paul, Andy, and a couple other people saying hello. So just let them say good morning.
[00:05:13] Goodnight. Good evening, whoever they, uh, are coming in and we appreciate you guys tuning in. Super excited. So let's go first on hospitality predictions for 2023. I am so pumped to hear what you guys have to say and to. Who has maybe something different that stands out or maybe similar compared to everybody else?
[00:05:37] So I'm gonna go with Stacy St. John. She was one of the first to join us behind the stage. So are you ready to kick off the predictions for this year?
[00:05:47] Stacy: I, I am, and I have to say, will, my first prediction is probably not a shocker to anyone who knows me. I am predicting the rise [00:06:00] of the women. Okay? So more than 55% of hosts are women.
[00:06:08] And, um, so many of us who are booking travel are women. And I know from my own community how women really, really have a, a passion for helping each other and helping fellow hosts together. So I'm a huge believer in community and I, I definitely see magical things happening with women in this industry.
[00:06:35] And I think we are going to, um, continue to see women not only helping support their guests, but support fellow hosts. So that is my first prediction. Um, prediction number two, I'm going to say the great divide will. And what [00:07:00] I mean by that is that with, you know, travel trends and occupancy starting to slow down, um, we've got more listings than ever.
[00:07:11] And for the folks who are, um, really dedicated to making their short-term rental business a best in class business, they will rise above. And the folks who are maybe not so dedicated into having a best in class business or even treating their business like a business, I think they will see a decline. So I think we're gonna have a bigger divide in between folks who are all in.
[00:07:47] Being their best driving continuous improvement. And then the folks who are, um, lagging behind or gonna lag even further behind. And number [00:08:00] three, I'm gonna say a great crossover will occur. And what I mean by that is that obviously so many of us are, uh, in the short term rental industry, and I see people starting to dabble in the midterm rental industry.
[00:08:19] And also maybe thinking, Hmm, how can my short term rental portfolio help me scale my overall real estate investing portfolio? So, um, I see people not only shifting from short-term to mid-term, but also looking to grow their long-term portfolio. And on the flip side, I see so many people who have been tried and true long-term rental investors for many years.
[00:08:48] They're going to finally dip their toe in the water in the world of short-term rentals. Now, my prediction is, is once they discover this world of short-term rentals, [00:09:00] they may never go back to long-term, but
[00:09:02] Will: we'll see. Those are some mighty predictions there. Stacy. I'm not gonna lie. , we've got, uh, a couple comments coming in too, just, uh, fyi.
[00:09:15] Um, we have Eliah, forgive me if I mispronounce any names today. I'm the worst with it. So just a heads up, um, coming in with some comments and we are going to save, uh, questions for everyone who's just now tuning into live. All of us on this panel are going to ask everyone questions at the end. So now that Stacy has given us three hot predictions, 4 20, 23, I'm gonna let actually open up to the floor for everyone to ask away to Stacy on anything in particular that they have.
[00:09:45] And Michael Golden with the hand raise. You're gonna go first. How'd you know it'd be me? Will,
[00:09:51] Michael: um, I do it. So point number two, Stacy. The, the great divide between the professionals who do an even better job and the not professionals [00:10:00] who. Bring everybody down. Um, the downstream effect of that is likely to be stronger, tighter, worse regulations.
[00:10:13] So how do you foresee this year with regulations as the divide deepens? Good
[00:10:23] Stacy: question. Well, that's a really good question. I can't say I'm an expert in anything having to do with regulations, but I will say, , I don't necessarily think that all regulations are a bad thing, right? I think regulations, obviously are put in place to help protect consumers from the folks who, again, maybe aren't doing, uh, uh, their best job in being the best host.
[00:10:51] So I also think that that provides an opportunity, a business opportunity for those who are to again, [00:11:00] maybe expand their co-hosting business or maybe, um, bring education and help bring those people up. But as far as regulations go, you know, I, again, I'm gonna be the first person to say I thankfully haven't personally had to experience that, but I do know that, you know, educating the rest of the world into the tremendous benefits of our industry and what they can bring to our communities is gonna be even more important than ever.
[00:11:32] Will: Good answer. Um, anybody else have questions for Stacy? I know there's quite a few predictions to cover, so No going Well, I was gonna ask, I have one.
[00:11:45] Steve: Okay. In the, in the women rising, who are the women that stand out to you in the industry right now that you see, uh, other than you, of course, and the ladies here, who else do you see rising?
[00:11:57] Stacy: I see so many people. Um, I have the [00:12:00] good fortune of, of seeing, again, women helping each other all day every day. But, you know, I think Annette and Sarah from Thanks for visiting, are complete rock stars. I continue to see them grow and, um, really make their mark. And, you know, folks like Julie George, I, I, she is amazing.
[00:12:22] She is, um, someone who is a complete visionary and has the best heart. And I think, again, anyone who, um, spends their time helping other people is really, really special. So, , um, folks like of course Rachel Gaines brew. If, if you don't know Ra I always say, if you don't know Rachel, you're living under a rock because girlfriend is everywhere, right?
[00:12:47] So again, I continue to see, uh, women like that, but also I, I see, um, I'll say a bubbling up of women who have a real interest in, [00:13:00] Hey, I see others helping other people, and I, I see how it's helping them. And so I've got people coming to me saying, how can I, how can I do the same thing? So maybe some names that you wouldn't recognize today, but um, I'm seeing it definitely bubble up on the back end, and it's certainly exciting.
[00:13:22] Will: I love it. I couldn't agree more with those names too. So I second that, uh, on my end. I, I think everybody else here does too. Um, awesome. Any other questions for Stacy before we get to the next prediction for 2023? Going once, going twice. Sold. All right. Brandy Cane, my friend. You are gonna be next, so yes.
[00:13:42] Are you ready? Ready to
[00:13:44] Brandy: rock and roll? I, I guess, I mean, that was a amazing first prediction. So I realize mine sound, I went a little bit academic with mine, so I'm going be, try to be a bit more fun. . But, um, I think my, uh, the prediction is that despite, uh, you know, kind [00:14:00] of the growing economic uncertainty that travel demand will continue to grow, albeit maybe a little.
[00:14:05] Slower. Um, right. I saw this p um, report from the Davos, uh, summit, that there's all these, you know, the, the 10 most concerning things that are happening right now. And then the article mentions that it doesn't seem like travelers are paying attention or that they care about that at all. And I think that that is true.
[00:14:24] I think people are still really, um, intent on traveling and want, you know, after being cooped up for so long. And, um, one of the things that we're seeing are shorter booking windows. I'm speaking specifically for our urban markets. We're still seeing, you know, that 14 to 21 days. So, People still might feel a little cautious, you know, wanting to wait maybe until the last minute or close to it to make a travel purchase in case something happens.
[00:14:50] But we're still seeing that people like, you know, strong demand if albeit nothing like we saw kind of in the pandemic where we saw this tremendous growth in the VR S T r um, [00:15:00] industries. , but you know, warm weather places. Luckily like the ones we're in , I think we'll still continue to attract people. And then European travel is still very popular, although the prices are surging, they're, you know, the Euro dollar parody is still relatively, you know, in our f not necessarily totally in our favor, but it's cheaper than it has been.
[00:15:20] And the only reason I would only asterisk, I would give to that is that there are upcoming sanctions that are being imposed in February, which could cause spikes in energy costs. So even if the monetary comparison is favorable, the prices might be increasing so that European vacation might not be as attractive.
[00:15:39] Um, but then on the other side of the world, you have some Asian countries that are fully opening for the first time in the end of the year. So there's that pent up demand. People really wanna take those vacations. And it was indu interesting because across all, The, uh, reports that I was reading, there were like two sides to this.
[00:15:56] People were either seeing, you know, that there was going to be a dramatic [00:16:00] drop off or saying a huge surge. So it'll be very interesting to see. Um, you know, what happens. I think like anything, it's probably somewhere in the middle. And because international travel demand might be increasing compared to the last couple of years, but those kind of trips are not available to everyone.
[00:16:16] So people who might be on a tighter budget or just don't want to spend that much for whatever reason, I think US domestic demand will still continue to grow. Air D n a had a great report that was like 5.5% I think in the coming year, which, you know, it's nothing wild, but it's still, you know, consistent.
[00:16:34] Um, so I think that will be really interesting to see. And then the huge impact of the return of Chinese travelers who are finally allowed to kind of leave the country, huge spending capabilities there. So it'll be interesting to see where they choose to spend those dollars or, you know, and, um, you know, who gets to benefit from those travelers reentering the market.
[00:16:56] Will: I'm glad that you mentioned the, uh, Chinese opening of [00:17:00] borders and stuff, um, because I actually wanted to see what your opinion was, but I'll let everyone else ask questions around Brandy's predictions before I actually go into that, but, uh, anybody have a question for Brandy?
[00:17:16] Nope. Okay. , I'm gonna ask where do you think they're gonna spend the money? When, if, like, you know, with borders opening up and being able to travel outside of China and other countries in Asia, , do you think people are going, like, are they gonna come to the US and to other places and are they gonna spend it in luxury travel, urban destination travel?
[00:17:38] Where do you think it's gonna be?
[00:17:39] Brandy: Yeah, I think it's going to be a lot of luxury travel that's kind of, you know, that makes the most sense. Obviously. I don't really think that the United States is going to be the primary beneficiary of that. Um, before Covid you saw a drop in that kind of Chinese traveler spending in the United States.
[00:17:55] So I think that probably other, um, you know, whatever popular [00:18:00] destinations in Asia that are preferred with Chinese travelers, they're probably going to be the first people. Maybe Canada, there's a huge Canadian Chinese tourism link. So I think that our neighbors to the north will probably benefit the most from that.
[00:18:11] And then, um, depending on how things go later on in Europe, um, you know, maybe, you know, a resurgence to continental European chapel as. .
[00:18:22] Will: It's a bold prediction. I like it. Very
[00:18:25] Brandy: good. I mean, we'll see. Good . I have a bibliography ready if anyone wants to see my sources. .
[00:18:32] Will: We'll need it for the show notes. I think we'll definitely need that.
[00:18:34] There's gonna be some viewers are like, all right, we, we gotta see her, her source here. They're gonna fact
[00:18:39] Brandy: check me. .
[00:18:40] Will: Seriously. Hashtag cancel. Brandy is gonna be the new thing on. Okay. No,
[00:18:44] Brandy: we don't need to start that Will. Okay.
[00:18:48] Will: just joking. I love it. Well, it's very good. I'll let anybody ask a question if they have one.
[00:18:53] If not, we'll move on. Anybody going once, going twice. All right. [00:19:00] Well Natalie Palmer, I think you are next in line. If we're gonna go into the order of people on my screen, it may look different to all of us behind here on, on the stage, but I'm going in screen order, so gentlemen, it's like we're all gonna be last, but Natalie off.
[00:19:17] Natalie: Yeah. Um, okay. So I have two. My, my main, my big one is that I think that this is going to be the year for co-hosts and property managers. I think with the rise of PMSs and more technology, a lot of people were going into self-management. Um, which I honestly encourage and I self-manage my properties. But I think a lot of people in the last year or so got into hosting cuz they thought it was a quick cash grab and they didn't really understand the how difficult it actually is and how much customer service is involved.
[00:19:51] And even though you can't automate a lot of it, I think a lot of hosts are just. They don't want to, they don't wanna take the time to set up this, this whole infrastructure and deal with all [00:20:00] that. And so I think there's gonna be more and more people looking for co-hosts and property managers. Um, the reason I think co-hosts specifically are going to crush it this year is I think a lot of these big property managers have gotten reputations for just taking a lot of money and not having the best cleaning operations.
[00:20:18] That's not a blanket statement. I know there's tons of wonderful property managers listening to this, but I think that there is kind of a craving for a co-host who gives more of a personal touch and kind of handholds the owner and there's more of a partnership. So that is my big prediction. And also what I'm using to back that is I think a lot of people are scared to buy real estate right now.
[00:20:38] And so from the opposite end, not just owners looking for co-hosts, I think more people will be interested in co-hosting. So that's my big one. I think this is the year of the co-host. If you wanna get into that, this will be the time to do it. Um, and my second one is I think that there will be much more, um, I think that like hospitality and experiences are gonna drive, uh, the vacation rental interest [00:21:00] industry much more.
[00:21:01] And so I think that we're gonna see kind of a blend of people who are hosting Airbnb's and vacation rentals will also do a turro car with that, or, um, allow you to do like a wedding or something, or an elopement at their destination. I think that all sorts of industry stuff is gonna kind of, I don't know, converge and you'll be able to hire like private chefs more easily and, um, get yoga, get a private yoga instructor to your listing.
[00:21:29] Um, I think that hospitality has just, a lot of us have started working together and picking ideas from different, um, you know, restaurant industry, hotel industry, and I think that we're gonna see a big blend of different services and experiences you can offer.
[00:21:47] Will: Way to take one of my predictions. Ding it now.
[00:21:50] Which one? That second one. . . But, uh, I love it. Uh, open up the floor for questions. Hey, will,
[00:21:59] Mark: I got one. [00:22:00] Uh, when Stacy was talking about the inspirational women, uh, is inspiring her, if only there was a place or a summit or an event coming up in a couple of weeks time that had where all of those women were gonna be.
[00:22:13] Now, could you think of it? I mean, I can't, could you think of it? I
[00:22:15] Natalie: wish. I wish. Okay. Thank you Mark. You're the best, um, level up your listing summit. You can head there for tickets and let's make, um, let's do round table 10. We'll get you 10% off your ticket. We can do that. I'll program that code right after this wraps up.
[00:22:32] Thank you, mark.
[00:22:33] Stacy: There might also be a precursor to that summit, possibly virtual. It could be called the Short Term Rental, virtual Summit for Women Happening next week.
[00:22:43] Will: Potential. Wait, you know, not to, not to shameless plug or anything, you know, we're just gonna throw 'em all out there. Yeah. Who else has got a conference?
[00:22:50] I know. Mike. Anybody else? A conference? ? Yeah. . Uh, I love it. Uh, we do have a question from, uh, live viewer for you, [00:23:00] Natalie. So can you please explain co-hosting? Is it two people managing the same property? Is one managing the backend and. Was kind of doing the turnover and communications. Kind of give us your definition of co-hosting and since we did shameless plugs, by the way, Natalie and I do kind of cover this on our vacation rental micro school podcast where we did a week together
[00:23:18] So no big, no big deal, but I will let Natalie answer the full question. .
[00:23:23] Natalie: Yeah. So, um, in, in my opinion, the way I kind of define co-hosting is I think a property manager full scale comes in and takes over everything. The, the owner would not have to lift a finger. Uh, co-hosting I think is more loosely defined.
[00:23:36] There are co-hosts who all they will do is take 5% of your commission and just respond to guests in the night hours when you don't wanna be bothered. There's co-hosts who will go in after the cleaner and just inspect the property and make sure everything's perfect. I think that there, and there are co-hosts myself who do do the same thing.
[00:23:52] A property manager do, they do everything, but I think it's just more. Like you can kind of, uh, pick and choose like all a cart, the little pieces [00:24:00] that you wanna outsource to a co-host. So it's, um, to go back to that question, it's not on the screen anymore so I can't reference it, but it's not two people doing the same job.
[00:24:09] Yeah. Two people managing the same property. I guess it could be if the owner wants to be involved and have a co-host help. Um, but e essentially it's, you know, just somebody who wants to kind of come on and handhold you and walk you through the process a little bit and pick up some of the tasks you don't wanna do.
[00:24:24] But again, there are co-hosts who do full scale property management as
[00:24:27] Will: well. I love it. Anybody else in our uh, round table here? Got anything from Natalie before? Yeah,
[00:24:34] Steve: I was come like a statement slash question cause I'm seeing it in Miami cause we're getting calls and Brandy, I don't know about you cuz we cover mostly South Florida, but I think a lot of people got into this game thinking it would be easy.
[00:24:44] Mm-hmm and they bought properties or even rented out properties that they couldn't cover with the rents and now they're scrambling cuz they're in desperation mode. Are you seeing that where you're at because we're getting a lot of those calls like. Please help me. We don't know how to get outta this.
[00:24:57] Yes. Um,
[00:24:59] Brandy: yeah, [00:25:00] we're not seeing that quite as much because we deal with full residential building. Buildings. Buildings. Yeah. Um, if you know any landlords in Miami that are trying to have somebody manage their building, please let me know. Send I 'em your way. Send, yeah, send them my way.
[00:25:11] Natalie: Um, Steve, I definitely am seeing that that's kind of what inspired my prediction and, um, in my area, but also like I'll just do consultations with hosts all over who are all saying like, what happened?
[00:25:22] My calendar was fully booked. I don't know what's going on this year. I'm trying to manage this. I'm stressing over it. Do you wanna manage it? Like, I get pitched all the time. And so I think that they're just such a hunger for people who they, they liked it when it was kind of easy and coming in and now there's really fierce competition and they don't know how to step it up or they don't want to, um, which is fine.
[00:25:42] And that's mm-hmm. , why I think this is the year of the co-host . If you wanna do this, this is your moment.
[00:25:47] Stacy: Can I add to that too? Because I also think, um, that there, that also presents an opportunity as a real estate investor, right, with a creative mind to put together creative [00:26:00] solutions, um, to make it a win-win scenario.
[00:26:03] If people are in desperation, um, you know, you always think about creative financing. You have a person and a problem. And when you can identify a solution to that problem from a real estate investing perspective, um, you , you definitely have the ability to, um, to move, move up the
[00:26:25] Will: ladder. I will say to everyone who's watching the live or watching us engage, we do have a private chat behind the scenes.
[00:26:31] So if you hear us laugh and stuff or make faces, sorry, usually cause we're, we're, we're, uh, we're kind of talking shit to each other. No offense, , uh, but, or something like that. But, um, no, I also was gonna say, I think Natalie, your point kind of ties into Stacy on the merging of, uh, different things within the hospitality, whether it's, you know, property management companies and co-host or, you know, short-term, midterm, long-term, kind of all going in together.
[00:26:58] I think, um, it's very [00:27:00] interesting watching cause I feel like I'm on the middle ground of the traditional vacation rental management company to then the Airbnb co-host just getting into it type ground. And that's where you're seeing, I think we're seeing both kind of learn from each other, which is really exciting.
[00:27:16] So, not that that's my prediction, just no observation. Um, I will let anybody else ask any questions they have for Natalie, if you are good. Then Mr. Mike Sjogren is next. So, uh, I'll kind of give everyone, anyone who got a question, raise your hand. Nope. All right, Mike, welcome and I'll let you kick it off.
[00:27:38] Mike: Love it. Well, hopefully, I apologize. My internet junked out on me, so I had to reboot in the middle of, uh, Stacy and Brandy stuff. So if I repeat anything, I apologize. Um, but I think I will reiterate a couple things and I think Stacy nailed it on the head, and I've been saying for a couple years around like this big divide.[00:28:00]
[00:28:00] I think 2023 is gonna be the year where it really forces everybody to level up their standards. We went through similar times in like 2020 in the heart of Covid, you know, March through July of 2020, like right in the middle of Covid, where kind of the side hustle host got pushed out because they weren't willing to level up and really push for.
[00:28:24] For more bookings. So I think 2023 is really gonna be a big divide, like Stacy said. Um, because quite frankly, if you got into this business in the last 18 to 24 months, it's been really freaking easy. Um, , like you could just get anything and throw it online, and there was just so much pent up demand that you would get bookings.
[00:28:43] And now we're starting to see things level off like 2019 levels. Um, and so it's, a lot of people are panicking, but for the folks that have been in the game a while, it's like, well, no, it's just kind of normalizing. Like the amount of demand that [00:29:00] happened after Covid was not sustainable. I don't care what any data person says, like that level of demand was not sustainable.
[00:29:07] So I think the, the key thing for folks that are in this now is to really make sure that you take a look at your portfolio. And that your listings stand out. Okay, just grabbing any one or two bedroom, you know, apartment or house and just putting some furniture in there is not gonna cut it anymore. So you really gotta pay attention to your design.
[00:29:29] Um, that's the biggest thing that I'm telling people right now is one, you've really gotta know your numbers. Like really know your numbers. Um, and I'm happy will, if you want, I'm happy to give people my deal analyzer, cuz that's kind of my jam. I'm a numbers guy, but like, you have to know your numbers. The amount of people that DM me, uh, I literally, it's funny, we were talking about Miami.
[00:29:48] I literally had, uh, a friend of mine reach out to me and I was analyzing his numbers. I'm like, who the hell told you to buy this deal? I was like, these numbers don't make any sense at all. Like, you're losing money. Like, it doesn't make [00:30:00] sense. Um, so really knowing your numbers, really investing in design, knowing your market, uh, I think.
[00:30:10] Based on my experience, I think this is gonna be the next 24 months is gonna be the year of the boutique hotels. Um, we just closed on our third one, our biggest one yet, and I'm seeing more and more people get in the game because there's just a lot more upside and there's a ton of opportunity out there.
[00:30:28] Oh boy. I'm seeing the side chat. So , sorry Mike, but, uh, I do think, I do think boutique cartels are gonna be really big. They've done really well for us in this hybrid approach of really being able to reduce the oversay and overhead and execute on some of the, the automations and the technology that we use in the traditional S T R world and taking them into the commercial space.
[00:30:53] Uh, I also think that there's gonna be a ton of opportunity yes, for co-hosting, but also [00:31:00] for the creative financing. , um, you know, whether it's subject two deals, whether it's seller financing deals, a lot of folks that bought the wrong deals that are now underwater, they're, if they try and sell them with the way that the market is now, they're probably gonna take a loss or, you know, have to come out of pocket basically to sell that property.
[00:31:19] So it's a prime environment for doing subject two, uh, deals where you basically just take over the mortgage. I think there's going to be a ton, a ton, a ton of opportunity for that. So to kind of summarize it at a high level, the standards of raise have been risen. So you really gotta up your game on the properties that you have through design and hospitality and operations.
[00:31:42] Like you have to treat this like a business. There is no more side hustle, you know, whip this thing up and it's just gonna make money. You really gotta pay attention to what's going on. Um, then there's gonna be a lot of opportunity for the creative financing, the co-hosting. And, uh, if you wanna go big, the boutique hotels have [00:32:00] a, a ton of meat on that bone over the next couple years.
[00:32:05] Will: Dang, the, the, the, the behind the scenes chat was popping off. Everyone's like, Mike, you're taking all of our stuff. There's nothing gonna be left. So, uh, very good stuff. I love watching all of this just because on the back end of Hospitality fm I get to hear everyone's episodes and conversations and see this, like the content everyone's putting out and the conversations being had, and everything you guys are all saying is just like so on point for what I was hoping you guys would all say.
[00:32:30] So thank you for that. But I will let everybody kind of, I saw Michael Golden raise his hands, uh, as a good kid that he is . Just kidding. Um, but I'll let go ahead and open up four questions here. Yes, Michael
[00:32:46] Michael: n not a question. Well, I guess it is a question. Uh, I've got a deal. I'd love you to look at and get your financial genius minds.
[00:32:54] Uh, get your input on it, but we'll side table that. Love
[00:32:57] Mike: it. Love it.
[00:32:59] Will: I
[00:32:59] Natalie: have a [00:33:00] question for Mike. Um, so I know like Stacy kind of touched on that she thinks there's gonna be an increase in midterm rentals, which I kind of think so too. So what do you think about that paired with the boutique hotel model?
[00:33:11] Are you noticing longer stays in boutique motel? A hundred
[00:33:13] Mike: percent. So the one that we just bought we're rebuild, it's a heavy reno. It's like nine month reno. We're rebuilding 27 out of the 57 from the ground up and putting in kitchens for that specific reason, especially where I am up in New England this time of year is like our dead season.
[00:33:33] And so those midterm stays are a godsend to get us through slow season. I'm not worried about Memorial Day through Thanksgiving, quite frankly, like we do really well. Um, but like this time of year, like we have it, that 22 unit. We get a bunch of like 30, 60 day stays that are nice, you know, we're not like bank rolling, but it carries us through the slow season and it's nice to be able to have that flexibility.
[00:33:59] [00:34:00] So we'll do about half of the units that have kitchens and then the other half will just be more like higher end. We're debating putting in cooktops and like all of 'em. Um, interesting. Just for that reason cuz it just gives you more flexibility.
[00:34:13] Natalie: For sure. And what's like the demographic of those midterm, um, travelers?
[00:34:19] Are they tourists that are coming for longer and off season or they're locals or like digital
[00:34:24] Mike: nomads? Not usually like going back to like covid times, right? It was like somebody going to check on mom for like the next month to make sure mom's good, you know, like the elderly parents or grandparents or whatever.
[00:34:38] So we snagged a lot of those during Covid. Now it's more like, you know, like Dr. Raach talks a lot about is like the. You know, my house burnt down or I'm doing a renovation and I need a place for a month or two months, cuz we're, you know, like 45 minutes north of Boston. We're kind of in the woods. Like it's not a big urban area.
[00:34:57] It's an easy ride or an easy train into the [00:35:00] city. But, um, we'll get a lot of those, we'll get a bunch of travel nurses that are in there for some local hospitals. Kind of the, the bread and butter stuff that, you know, a lot of the midterm folks have been talking about for a while. Um, so it's kind of a mix.
[00:35:14] Um, where Salem, it's, it's super historic. So if you guys aren't familiar with like Salem Mass, it's a very, very historic town, you know, founded in 16 hundreds. I'm thinking about 1626 for the hotel name by the way. So I'd love you guys take on that, but I thought it was short and punchy, so I'll throw that out there like it.
[00:35:32] Um, and it, it has a wide traveler base, so you get a lot of like, people that are into the history and then you get a lot of people that are into like, , the Halloween and the witch trials, cuz that's where all that stuff happened back in the day. So we're actually gonna do some themed rooms, like some crazy themed rooms like we do near Disney, but like up there, um, that'll be really interesting.
[00:35:53] So I'm, I'm excited for that. Cool.
[00:35:57] Will: I know we got two more questions. Uh, I did, [00:36:00] I see Brandy and Mark both had a question. Yeah,
[00:36:03] Brandy: it was more just kind of building off of the, kind of the non-sexy part of underwriting these deals, um, because, I forget the name of the loan, but there was a program out there where you could get these loans for a vacation rental based on the projected revenue that you thought you were going to make.
[00:36:19] And so that's during this like really frothy time when all these people were, you know, spending months or whatever. Um, yes, thank you. D S C R, thank you Stacy. Um, and so now when reality is hitting and you have a more, I think, stabilized market, people are like, how, uh, everything dried up, what's going on?
[00:36:36] And I love that they blame Airbnb , which like, that's just not the, not the reality. And I think that that's the most important part, like you said, to know your numbers. Like you have to have strong financials to make these kind of decisions. And a lot of people overlook that.
[00:36:51] Mike: I'll, I'll give you like my quick and dirty rule of thumb.
[00:36:54] Obviously you gotta do more than this, but like for a quick sniff test, a [00:37:00] property has to bring in. 20% of whatever my all-in cash investment is. So like if I'm going to spend a hundred thousand on down payment and furnishings and whatever, whatever I need to get it live, that property has to generate at least 20,000 bucks, right?
[00:37:18] So as you extrapolate, that million dollar property has to bring in at least 200,000 gross. And I found that that rule of thumb, like if you're putting debt on it and you have decent debt terms and everything else, that'll get you between a 25 and 30% cash on cash return. So like even if I have to reduce a lot of my rates for the next two years, I have so much spread and so much margin that I will always compete because I just have so much spread and you can find those deals.
[00:37:47] You just have to be patient. And that's what people don't understand. It's like you can't just throw a dart on Zillow anymore and grab anything and make money. You've gotta know your numbers. , and that's why I'm really getting in the weeds with like SD R Insights and Air D n [00:38:00] A and all these different data sites.
[00:38:01] Like before I bought that place near Disney last year, I bought all the raw data from Air d n A. It was not cheap, but I bought every house, every property's data for the last five years for 37,000 rentals in Kissimee. And I went, put in some formulas, all right, what's the average one bedroom do two bedroom, three bedroom, four bedroom, five bedroom.
[00:38:24] And after going through all the data, it was like once you got over 10 bedrooms, it was like the revenue went through the roof in certain pockets. So like that research took me like almost two months to do. And then people are like, well, wow, like your property's doing well. I'm like, yeah, cuz I know the numbers.
[00:38:39] Like I knew exact, like I knew where to go, but I took the time to do the research, which is not. , but like this is a numbers game.
[00:38:48] Stacy: Okay. But I, I have to say this, Mike, you don't just know the numbers. You also lean into the design and the guest experience because a hundred percent there are, I know Stacey just stayed there.
[00:38:59] [00:39:00] There are , there are places that are right around the corner from you who are the same size house in the same neighborhood, and when they only maybe know their numbers and buy it as a strict investment and then go, all right, that's all I have to do, those are the people that are hurting.
[00:39:17] Mike: Mm-hmm. , the thing that I talked about at our boardroom event with Stacy last week was, if you're getting into it now, the way that I do it, just like I said, I know the numbers, but then I'm like, I analyze the direct comps and I ask myself, how can I do this better than anybody else?
[00:39:36] Like, what do I need to do to make this stand, head and shoulders above anybody else here so that maybe they got a better location. , but mine's okay, but I can make my unit crazy or I can make this way better. Like what can I do to differentiate myself that would be way more attractive to book with me than anybody else?
[00:39:55] And it's gonna be different depending on whatever market you're in. And there's gonna be some [00:40:00] baseline amenities that you're gonna need in whatever market that you're in. But then you need to ask yourself the question, if I was traveling, what would I want to see and what would I be willing to shell out a little extra money for to make it worth it?
[00:40:14] And just start doing that. Like, just start asking yourself those questions because it's, again, it is gonna get more competitive. So you gotta think of ways to stand out. Nobody's doing themed rooms up here, so like, let's go for it. Let's, let's do something different.
[00:40:29] Will: Yeah. That's a really good point. I love it.
[00:40:32] Well, um, do we have any more questions? I know we're kind of getting a little longer on time for this one, but totally open. Mark if you have a question, uh, to jump on in my friend. All right, cool. You told me to move on. , uh, Michael Golden. You are next in line. I know this is something you've been looking forward to pretty much all year, quote unquote 2023 cuz it's only like two weeks in.
[00:40:55] So put for me. Um, but I'll let you take it over there, my [00:41:00] friend, and go for your prediction.
[00:41:03] Michael: Do you mind moving me back to the main screen? Will, yeah, there you go. Que question for the group. Um, of these seven major hotel chains, how many sub-brand exist? Mike, we'll start with you.
[00:41:21] How many sub-brand? Off the top of my head, I don't know, but
[00:41:23] it's a lot.
[00:41:24] Mike: Finger to the wind. There's a lot .
[00:41:27] I could do a quick Google, but I don't know the number off the top of my head.
[00:41:30] Will: Natalie, guess
[00:41:33] I have literally no idea. Not a clue.
[00:41:36] Natalie: All right, Steve Turk,
[00:41:38] Steve: I'm going. Four 50 . Oh,
[00:41:41] Will: wow.
[00:41:41] Steve: I'm big
[00:41:42] Will: aggressive. Geez. I dunno. Randy, any guests?
[00:41:48] Michael: No, you're on mute, but you're shaking your head now.
[00:41:53] Mike: mark. No,
[00:41:55] Mark: I'm, I'm sorry. I'm, I'm literally watching a Liverpool game in the bottom left hand corner. So I, [00:42:00] the answer is no and the
[00:42:02] Will: answer not,
[00:42:04] Stacy: I have no clue, but I'm gonna say, uh, 700.
[00:42:10] Michael: Wow. Not quite that many . Um, there's 165 flags under the major brands. Accor has 40, Marriott has 30, Wyndham has 26, Hyatt has 22, Hilton has 18.
[00:42:24] I h g has 17, and Choice has 12. 60 of these brands were added in 2019 alone. So all of these flags are really now trying to differentiate. and the, the proliferation of these brands is happening because you can't, when they sell a a franchise, you can't have more, uh, Marriotts on the same block. On the same street.
[00:42:51] So they need a different chain, a different brand, a different feel, so they can own the whole block. And by [00:43:00] them being able to add more flags and more brands, they can capture more market share in, in said markets, um, people want to stay with brands because they know it's predictable. They know what they're getting.
[00:43:13] They might identify better with Moxi than with, you know, traditional Marriott or Holiday Inn. Um, but at the end of the day, the bold prediction is there will be another hotel chain launching or acquiring a multi-family apartment brand this year. Following Marriott's apartments by Marriott and it's a green pasture segment.
[00:43:43] You know, they've, there's some long-term stays, but no one's really diving in on the hotel brand going after Airbnb's, you know, playground. So it's, it's green pastures. These parent [00:44:00] brands or flags, um, can just spin off and, and start adding them, buying, you know, one of y'all's companies, uh, or creating their own, like Marriott has done with apartments.
[00:44:12] So I don't think it's that bold. I think it's almost certain to happen, but we'll see.
[00:44:20] Will: I'm gonna ask you, when do you think, if it's almost certain to happen, when do you think, like, give us a, a rough date, end of the year, mid-year tomorrow, today as we're live right now, people are listening and they're doing it.
[00:44:33] Yeah, it's,
[00:44:34] Michael: um, I, I think it could be as soon as anyone wants to. I, I think i h g has been the slowest to be in the segment. Accor is played in the space. Hyatts played in the space. Uh, choice is played in the space. Wyndham used to have a, one of the biggest companies in this space. Um, so I think they've all dipped their toes in, but kudos to Marriott for [00:45:00] not only launching homes and villas, but also launching, uh, apartments.
[00:45:04] So they're leading the way. Everyone else is gonna be followers.
[00:45:08] Mike: Um, Mike, you know, it's interesting real quick that I mentioned earlier, within a week of closing that last one, one of those five, I won't say, who reached out to try and buy this deal like almost immediately.
[00:45:22] Michael: Does that answer your question?
[00:45:23] Will,
[00:45:24] Will: yeah, it does . That really does . Awesome. I love it. Any questions for Michael? ,
[00:45:31] Brandy: not a question, but you know, obviously, um, it's a little nerve wracking for those of us who operate in urban markets right around the corner from these big brands. Um, but I, I think that it will take a little bit more time. I have a feeling that pe that these companies might take the more Marriott route they, you know, and build their own brand within, you know, within their main brand.
[00:45:55] And that takes time. And Marriott has had the luxury of having their [00:46:00] platform and working with operators like Sexton to see kind of how we operate. Um, their due diligence is a real piece of work, . Um, and so it's, you know, they've had the opportunity to learn and I think that that's probably, I would say what the other companies will start doing,
[00:46:16] Michael: but others can copy.
[00:46:18] It's the, sure, the first mover has a bit of an advantage, but everyone else just gets to copy and paste.
[00:46:22] Will: So, yeah, that's very true. Steve, you're a hotel guy, you're a big hotel guy. I, I'm curious on your thoughts just because
[00:46:33] Steve: the world I've, I've been preaching it for a long time. I think people wanna stay with brands that they trust and they learn to trust brands that they stay with in the hotel world.
[00:46:42] And I would like, I I say it a bunch, like Nobu kind of does it now. They have these tiny little hotel in Malibu, just 12 rooms, right? It's like kinda that boutique hotel, but very much high end luxury. Um, you see it with residences popping up, like I'm looking across the street. They're building an addition residences here [00:47:00] soon.
[00:47:00] You got cranes going up everywhere with these branded deals. Um, I just think it's gonna be a matter of time and it's gonna go through, I think through the residences. Like the St. Regis is building their residences, two of them in this county, and I think it's gonna be more and more of that. So it may not be where they acquire it, but they just start living that life.
[00:47:18] And then if you're living there, they team up with a trusted vacation rental or short-term rental manager that allows those. rentals in those buildings. That's the key is gonna be where are you going to use a trusted person or are you gonna allow Wild West in these buildings with, you know, single property owners renting out their units.
[00:47:36] So it's gonna be interesting to see, but I think I going that way too is a way of seeing it.
[00:47:42] Will: Yeah, I like that. Um, awesome. Anybody else have anything for Mr. Golden before we go to Mark? Nope. All right. Mark Simpson, you're up my friend. So stop watching the Liverpool game and, uh, get ready of the, to uh, give us a hot predictions.
[00:47:59] Mark: I [00:48:00] know right of all the times I totally got my times wrong and I just saw it in the bottom right hand corner. Liverpool score a lovely goal, but anyway, bringing it back to hospitality. Um, so it's really tricky when you are the last two with the predictions when a lot of people have had some amazing predictions that, uh, already.
[00:48:17] But let's see, I think I wanna do a combination of everybody's and just sort of, um, just sort of go on that. Um, I think first and foremost, We will go back to Norm. So the 2019 norm, um, so when Brandi was talking about China and, um, China being able to travel and Chinese people have been able to travel again, if you've been in this game for a few years, if you're around in 2018, 2019, and if your area, your region, your town, your city, your state was well known for having, um, an influx of Chinese tourists come over, then it'll be results or not.
[00:48:51] Like there's a, there's an area in the late districts and um, like Chinese people don't really travel in ones or two. They come in Coachloads and it's well known, [00:49:00] uh, because the Chinese absolutely love Peter Rabbit. I dunno if everybody knows what Peter Rabbit is. It's very British thing. But they come over and it's just well known that they literally just come through in the busloads.
[00:49:09] They, they rock up, they, they just ascend on all of the shops and just buy everything. And you've just got one very happy Lake Tian shop owner. Uh, so those, so that will result to Norm. So obviously Bali, Indonesia, et cetera, places in, in the uk. But I think what it also means is that we're gonna get a return of the, the shoulder season, like the true, so shoulder season, what happened in 2020 2021, and for, for the most part, in 2022 for shoulder season, a k a, the slow season of the peak season was extended, um, because like the travel and was so bouncing back so quick and people were sort of not being able to stay in hotels or not going on cruises.
[00:49:48] And this, the season that we, we sort of all got to used to was being extended. I think that what'll happen with everything that's going on and all the uncertainty as, as Brandy mentioned, again, we will go back to that sort of [00:50:00] have a slow season, shoulder season, a true one. But I think what we'll continue, and I don't think that's going anywhere, is that we've got a new avatar, a new guest, and that is the, the, the true digital nomad, the uh, the slow mat, the digital slow mod, the people that are coming for 30, 60, 90 days.
[00:50:17] Um, people now more than ever have got this office hybrid where, you know, I know so many people that have not gone properly back into the office. They only have to go in a couple of times a month or, uh, very minimum at most. And with that, they are able to travel and work while they travel. And I don't think that's gonna go anywhere.
[00:50:38] Um, you know, if, if, if anything, it's going to get more. And what does that mean for you as a host or a management company or a co-host or whoever watching this? Is that there are a lot of people coming into this industry and that's, that's not gonna slow down. There's gonna be so more people that are going to be tempted to come into it.
[00:50:55] Um, like Natalie said, there are people that maybe got involved at the latter end of [00:51:00] 2021, the start of 2022. Cause the numbers were so good and now they're kind of being shaken out because they're getting a little bit of nervous. They're itchy bum time, and they're going to look to, instead of do it themselves, they're gonna reach out to people like Natalie and, and companies like this, smaller hosts to, to look after their portfolio.
[00:51:15] But there's gonna be a lot of people still coming in. And so with that being said, if you are complaining about saturation in your market, if you are complaining that there's a lot of people doing this, this, uh, this short-term rental game, the way to really stand out, and this is what Mike was saying, when everybody's zigging you, Zack, so he really does his research like more than anybody else that I've ever met, does a massive amount of research, knows his numbers.
[00:51:41] But on the top of that, like what Stacey said, he, he bottles on top of his numbers with what this, what this industry is all about. Hospitality and themed rooms or, or whatever he could do. And the hosts that really pay attention to hospitality are the ones that won't just [00:52:00] survive but will thrive on the other end.
[00:52:02] There's something that I'm trying to sort of get around and try and get as many people as possible to bring this into their businesses is have a guest success manager. because the amount of money that you actually get for your booking should be just one arm of your money making revenue process in your business.
[00:52:18] There's fantastic offerings like Mount with Maddie's business and with, uh, host Co, which means now more than ever, you're able to upsell, you're able to offer products and services, and it's never been easier to, to bring into your business and make it more automated or make it fit into to, to what you've currently gotten.
[00:52:38] I think the final thing that I will say is that Airbnb and, you know, I, I can't do one of these things without having a little jabber Airbnb. I think they're gonna try and have their cake and eat you, and they are massively bending over for the guest right now. So what I mean by that is that there has to be just one little social media [00:53:00] storm about cleaning fees and it's gone.
[00:53:03] And they're, they're, they're doing all of these things to make the guest happy. And I think when they do that, , they're going to piss off a lot of hosts, and all you have to do is look at Instagram right now. You just have to look at forums. Um, a more of than ever host are starting to realize that they can't just build their whole business on this one platform.
[00:53:24] And so you see 'em start to go multi-platform. You see 'em to now to get property management software tools. And obviously the, the plus side of that with me sitting at the Boothy table is that they're looking at Dara bookings. And so I think that there's a couple of things that are gonna happen.
[00:53:40] Hopefully Dara bookings continue to rise. Uh, but the, the main thing is, is that the hoster under promise and overdeliver, you are going to be absolutely fine. The host that are just going for average, you are the ones that have to be careful this year. So that's my predict. .
[00:53:58] Will: Dang. The, the private chat going [00:54:00] lot going hot back behind the stage.
[00:54:02] Gonna get the livestream shut down, calling out Airbnb like that, mark. Dang. Well, uh, I'll I'll leave it open for questions for anybody who's, uh, wants to comment question on Mark's, uh, predictions.
[00:54:17] Steve: Well, I'm just curious because I have, I have a question coming from the book direct show. Um, you know, I heard a lot of great stuff about Booking Direct and I know you are working with Bruce Lee, um, and we're planning our game out here too, but do you see it being successful for people starting out their book direct?
[00:54:32] Like what is like one or two tips for people trying to get their business up and running away from the
[00:54:37] Will: platforms?
[00:54:38] Mark: Yeah, I mean, it's, it's super simple to do. I mean, obviously you're not gonna go cold Turkey on, on Airbnb, vrbo, and like you need them because they're a marketing channel. Um, but the best time to start is write a property.
[00:54:50] Um, because if you can instantly put into the, the right foundations and the blueprint in place, as you grow and you expand and you add in more properties, [00:55:00] the, the whole game is just so much more simpler. The trouble is, and I see this so many times and I speak to a lot of, a lot of people and they get going and they li list on Airbnb cause it's so easy to do.
[00:55:10] It's like you can literally be up within minutes and they then are on Airbnb, they get settled and secure on there and then they hear about vrbo. So they go and set up a VRBO account, but you don't wanna have a, a double booking, right? So you go on, uh, connect your calendars together, but instead of starting where you should be, we've get a proper team management software tool and then connected to the two.
[00:55:31] They'll take their Airbnb and they'll link it to VRBO and they'll connect it up there so that they are relying on Airbnb on that connection and let's just say property number two comes around and then they do the same thing again. And then you're starting to build a spider's web where it's all comes back to being heavily reliant on this Airbnb.
[00:55:48] And that is where the problem assures. So the first thing that everybody can do, if anybody's wondering, well how do I get started? How do I get going down on this route? The first thing you can do at property number one, get a property management software tool, whoever you use, cause there's a lot of choice out [00:56:00] there, and then you build it off the back of that.
[00:56:02] Got it. That's my one.
[00:56:05] Will: Awesome. Um, I know for everyone who's shooting into the live, just wanna make a quick comment. We are definitely gonna go a little bit over today. Uh, so we might have a couple of our panelists, uh, drop off due to schedules and other meetings, but, uh, we'll try to keep everyone that can stay on to be on and we'll repost this for anyone who is watching and can't stay live cuz it's only scheduled for the hour.
[00:56:28] So if you guys wanna catch re clips and replays, all that good stuff, we'll make sure to post and share. Um, but to help close it off before I give a couple nuggets, thank God nobody really actually mentioned my main prediction. So I will let Steve Tur go first and then we'll close it off with everyone and wish everyone a good rest of the day and week.
[00:56:49] Steve Jerk, you are up, my friend. All right. Lemme just get a sip of my Biscayne
[00:56:52] Steve: coffee here before we start.
[00:56:54] Will: Uh, I love all the infomercials we're doing. It's so good. .
[00:56:58] Steve: Uh, so I'm gonna switch it up a [00:57:00] little bit. I, you know, I, I love all the things we've heard today, but I live in both worlds of hotels and, uh, short-term rentals.
[00:57:07] And this is more of overall hospitality. So the latest jobs report came out and there's still 450,000 jobs that are open since the same levels at pre pandemic. So it's a gigantic number. It's more than any other industry out there. And I've seen a lot of my friends that have been working their butts off since March, 2020 when that pandemic hit.
[00:57:29] And now I'm starting to get a lot of inbound calls. This is brand new over like the last three to four weeks where people are now reaching out, asking me how I was able to transition out of being an executive in hotels. and to get into something that's more flexible With my time, like consulting and starting the short term rental and starting the podcast and starting a coffee company, they're starting to ask me how they can get out, which is not a, a great sign for a lot of these hotels that are already short of staff.
[00:57:55] Right? People were trying to stay there, suck it up and make it through. But help [00:58:00] just doesn't seem to be on the way. And so I think this is, now let's get to the good news. That's the bad news. The good news is that the luxury hotels where these guests are paying tons of money to stay there, are now starting to pay up.
[00:58:12] They're starting to give out lots of big bonuses and they know that usually people get a bonus and they're still looking to leave, maybe find other jobs. So now they're increasing pay, and that's across the board from the housekeepers up to the top level executives. . And so where I think the opportunity is for these people who are asking me, so if you're someone who's been an executive like I was and you're looking to get out, I think that there's a lot of opportunities and a lot of great brain power that can be shared in the short term rental world where you can bring all the things you know about hotels and luxury standards into that area.
[00:58:46] And I think you're gonna see a lot of people start to get into residences because residences usually are Monday to Friday. Um, unless you're working in like a food and beverage aspect at these places, you have to work weekends. But usually if you're Monday to Friday in these luxury [00:59:00] residences and the luxury residences are really going after these hotel people and offering them that kind of quality of life.
[00:59:05] So my prediction is luxury hotels and everyone else will have to follow and paying up more for people that are giving up the flexibility of their schedules. Uh, but that the short term rental industry, I'm, I'm doing it right now, we're looking for people in the hotel world that want a more flexible schedule will start coming into this side of the, the world.
[00:59:23] So hospitality will start to mesh together, um, a little bit more this year.
[00:59:30] Will: I love it. I love it. I love the differential or differential that you brought in. So anybody have comments, questions, concerns? Just get concerns part, I've got one. Mm-hmm. . Yep. Go for it Real quick. So
[00:59:42] Mark: with the, the whole, uh, recruitment world and, and coming out of like the last couple of years, how are you finding, like getting staff and, and, and backfoot for the world of hotels, et cetera?
[00:59:51] Are you you noticing that like getting the the right staff, good staff, is that still an issue or is that getting back to like normal levels? No,
[00:59:57] Steve: no, it's way back. So there's still [01:00:00] 450,000 jobs open and there's people that are gonna be getting back like, I should never have left. I used me as example right?
[01:00:06] As an executive at a great hotel, but I just didn't see the light at the end of the tunnel and it's still happening, right? I didn't, I have two little kids and I never got to see them. But now flexibility is like, The golden nugget here. The companies that can offer the most flexibility to their team are gonna be winning.
[01:00:21] And we see it now, um, across the brands that are doing that, where they're paying up and then offering flexibility. Like some of 'em are doing four day work week. Summer's saying, look, you don't have to work every holiday. We'll trade Thanksgiving for Christmas and Christmas for New Years. And they're trying to give that flexibility to a lot of people.
[01:00:38] Um, but really it's the perks. And a lot of them went away. And I actually just wrote about this yesterday on LinkedIn was one of my best perk packages was I worked at the Mandarin Oriental and I got free spa once a month. I got free food. That was amazing. Dry cleaning, uh, you know, parking, gym, access, all these awesome things.
[01:00:58] $75 room rentals at, [01:01:00] you know, $1,500 a night hotel rooms. But that went. And those things just aren't out there anymore. So I think you're gonna see a lot of people investing back because a lot of these hotels did have record profits. Why? Because there was no one working, right? So people were killing themselves to get those record profits, and now they have to invest that back into the team.
[01:01:20] Will: Well, just, uh, a funny comment before going on to the next question. Sorry Brandy to cut you off. I saw you taking ready to take the leap, but Sarah, Hey, Sarah Franon says she, you can't pay her enough to go back to hotels. Is, uh, I, I guess, you know, I would go back. I've, I've missed my hotel days back in the day.
[01:01:38] Uh,
[01:01:39] Steve: I missed my team. I missed my team.
[01:01:40] Will: Yeah, I'll tell you that. Yeah, it's different working remote. I think going short-term rental to from hotel or being in person is very, very different. But, uh, do you think, I guess my question is Sarah, more or less than Steve, , what, what would make you go back would be the, the perk slide.
[01:01:56] I, you had me at Spa Steve. I would do the spa thing once a month. Guaranteed. A hundred [01:02:00] percent done every, I
[01:02:01] Steve: did it every time. That's why I'm a spa nerd now.
[01:02:02] Will: I love it. Yeah. , I love it. Uh, go ahead Brandy, I'll let you take off.
[01:02:07] Brandy: Yeah, I just find that the, you know, the conversation around payroll is very difficult because you, you know, there is this race and we've seen it in both our South Florida and New Orleans markets, like trying to compete with hiring housekeeping staff when we have to compete with the Four Seasons who are paying the same rate we are, but also offering the dry cleaning, the free meals.
[01:02:26] Like we can't compete with that. And when you start increasing your payroll more and more and more to try to get people in the door and get them to stay, then that becomes a huge problem because the ADRs are not necessarily what they used to be. And so then, If there are tough times coming, the first thing and the most impactful thing that you can do to cut your costs is to cut your payroll.
[01:02:50] And so I think that that creates just this negative feedback loop where you're racing to race salaries to attract the talent, and then you get yourself in a position where you can't afford [01:03:00] that at all, and then you have to cut them, and then you have to do the whole cycle again. So I, it's, um, something that like, you know, I, it's a very tricky situation and, um, I also wish that I had a monthly spa package.
[01:03:11] I would definitely
[01:03:12] Will: do that. It was the best .
[01:03:14] Mike: I literally just met with, uh, my team about this earlier today. And again, it comes back to the same mindset of how do you make your properties more attractive than your comps? How do you make your team more attractive than your. , right? Like even doing things now, like Friday, we're having a huge party at one of our hotels, inviting all the different staff from all different properties, having it catered, dj, like bar, like everything.
[01:03:41] And just doing those little things. We used to have like, um, pizza Fridays or catered lunch Fridays for all the housekeeping staff at like one of the, just like doing little things and just showing your team that you give a shit. Sorry, I don't know if I'm not supposed to swear on this, but like, showing people that you care, man.
[01:03:59] Cuz [01:04:00] like most companies, they don't want to feel like a cog in the wheel. They want to feel like they're part of something bigger. It's like Steve was talking about earlier, you didn't see the light at the end of the tunnel. So do you have a vision that's big enough that's gonna captivate your team? That like, we're going big places and you want to be on this bus and we have a lot of fun and our standards are freaking high, but if you can play ball with us, this is gonna change your life.
[01:04:25] and I personally interview all the employees to figure out what are their personal goals and how can I align our business to help them hit whatever their personal goals are. Yeah. Like again, I'm not a massive company like, so it's a lot easier for us and for me to train like our manager to like have those conversations, to just have more of that interaction with their, with our team of like, what is important to you and how can you, how can we make sure that you hit that working with us?
[01:04:51] That's where you start to
[01:04:52] Steve: win. You, you'll be able to convince some great hotel employees that have all the experience you're looking for cuz of the passion you've got [01:05:00] and telling 'em, I'm gonna, I got your back. Right. And I think hotels are realizing that like, man, we really messed up a couple years ago and we're still having to gain back the trust of all the people that left.
[01:05:10] And a lot of people just never, there are gonna be a lot of never was. Mm-hmm. . Cuz you can make $45,000 flipping things on eBay. Right? So that money is not attractive to you to go into a hotel. So it's gonna be interesting to see what happens. .
[01:05:23] Will: Yeah, I was gonna say, one of the things we kind of built, this is outside of the hospitality, like lodging side, but our team, we, there's a lot of toxicity around.
[01:05:33] Like we're a family, we're a family and everyone tries to use that line for their staff with housekeeping and maintenance and all this other stuff and saying, we're family then yet they get canned the next week. Cuz again, the ADRs weren't good or whatever. Um, so one of our kind of big statements with each other, um, Claire and Michael will answer to this, is that we're not family, but we're friends and we're allowed to be friends outside of work and we're allowed to have companionship and get to know each other and be aligned personally rather than just a [01:06:00] business because.
[01:06:01] That mindset is way better than saying, Hey, we're a family, but then, oh, guess what? We lost all of our revenue and, uh, see you later. Like, we don't really care. Mm-hmm. . And, you know, that's, that mentality I think has been a big differentiator for me, especially being in a hotel or other companies that have been quick to slow to hire and quick to fire, be based off of revenue projections and, uh, seniority and rather than talent and passion and of course, experience.
[01:06:27] So it's, uh, pretty interesting for, for all that to, to kind of come back to light. Um, sweet. Anybody else got stuff or anybody else got a question? It's not something for Steve on basically his predictions and what he's just mentioned. Going once, going twice. Sold. Cool. Well, not to close it off on a boring note cause I'm the last one to go.
[01:06:52] Um, but I will say I wrote down three predictions, being scared that everyone else is gonna mention their prediction first. [01:07:00] But there was one prediction that I am kind of putting out there and I want to see everyone's faces on this to go into. It's gonna be two of 'em. Uh, but the big one is gonna be Va Casa.
[01:07:11] So obviously V Casa not to like dig at them. And I'm not trying to do that. It's more of a prediction of what they're gonna do because they do get a lot of, uh, headline and spotlight news. So my prediction with V Casa, they did this big layoff. They had gotten rid of a live of employees. It was big news right before V rma, I believe.
[01:07:30] Um, and my prediction will be that they are going to let go of homes and properties without density or actual gaining revenue. And then they're actually gonna start building rather than buying. So they let go of a lot of their acquisitions team. My prediction is that they're gonna go into building kind of a condominium apart hotel buildings, which is what they're known to be better at, rather than single family homes.
[01:07:54] And in order to become profitable, they're also gonna start. Looking, obviously to build the [01:08:00] bigger buildings, multi-family structures, but then they're gonna become more of an OTA trying to compete with Airbnb, um, and trying to be, of course profitable. I think that's my big prediction for this year slash going into next year.
[01:08:13] Cuz obviously building buildings, Building buildings takes a lot of time and, and money. Um, but I also think that they are just trying to focus and not like Saunder where they're trying to do a master release model and do all these buildings they're actually trying to build on. Cuz guess what? Owners can't fire them if they own the building.
[01:08:30] So that's kind of my big prediction for the year. And then my second one going into what a lot of people have said on this panel today would be around mobility, hospitality. So I'm gonna predict that things like the sprinter vans and kind of a glamping RV mobile hospitality type inventory glamping, um, is gonna become very more popular, especially as the younger generation of travelers, whether there's a recession or not.
[01:08:58] They're renting, they're spending their money [01:09:00] with experiences rather than anything else. So what better experience to do while you're young doin broke is to hop in a sprinter van with someone, whether it's a significant other or a friend. And hit the road. And guess what? If you can't afford gas, then you can at least camp out and wait until you get your next paycheck in order to move on to the next spot.
[01:09:19] So I think that's gonna be the next big thing for, um, hospitality, such as like experiential hospitality. But uh, yeah, I'll let you guys do with that as you want. Anybody got questions? Yeah, I
[01:09:32] Mike: wanna, I wanna go hire 'em though.
[01:09:34] Natalie: I have a question for Will. So do you think that with the campers, that that's going to be, um, like more of a drive to like rent them, to drive them or to go to like the park, to like glam site that has the deck built out in the hot tub and everything and I'm literally in a camper right now.
[01:09:49] This is the Airstream we bought and I'm still looking for land to park it. So maybe you'll convince me to just rent it from my driveway and let people drive it out.
[01:09:57] Will: No, I was gonna say I think it's more. [01:10:00] The mix of like, Hey, we're gonna, we have, we're we, we work remote, so we're gonna go, just hit the road and hit all the spots that we want to, whether it's like Colorado or going into the Pacific Northwest and experiencing maybe even Arizona going up to the desert, multiple different locations.
[01:10:16] But then also the, hey, guess what we are out of P T O or whatever. But we have the weekends off, nine to five type hustle and we're gonna just gonna take the sprinter van or the RV or hit a glamping site for the weekend just to get away. Um, one of my big. Kind of reasons for this would be coming from, inspired from, uh, Tori and Seth Bolt out with Bolt Farm Treehouse.
[01:10:40] Um, out in the, actually I'm not gonna say where cuz I don't remember fully, but they have an amazing, um, acreage and they're building a community of glamping, um, huts and tree houses and mirror cabins and all sorts of stuff. And I think that trend is not even a trend. It's more of a futuristic, experiential [01:11:00] hospitality that a lot of people are wanting to seek, whether it's for a weekend or for kind of a lifestyle thing.
[01:11:04] So I think the van life is also gonna translate into that. It's gonna be like an easier transition. See, I, I, I
[01:11:10] Mark: can speak to this cuz I grew up on a 200 acre farm stay business. So it's amazing to me as a British person that the whole glamping thing hasn't properly taken off in the States. Um, and I can see it getting bigger and bigger and bigger and um, you know, if you just come over here.
[01:11:26] If you go to any village or any countryside, right? These farms that used to be just working farms have now got some element of an experience they built into it wherever it is, uh, camping, glamping huts, what, whatever you wanna call it, right? And it, it is getting huge or bigger and getting more known over in, over in the states.
[01:11:45] And so yeah, I can totally, totally buy into that. Totally see that. Um, and you know, it's, it's funny, um, when the 2020 started to go a bit crazy, you could not buy. A camper, an rv, a caravan in the UK for love, no money. Cause that was, [01:12:00] you know, everywhere was closed up. And literally the only way you could do it is if you jumped in a, in a caravan.
[01:12:03] And, um, I, I'm sure I heard this right from, uh, uh, Airbnb on a podcast like they, uh, officially the second largest, uh, renters of RVs without even meaning to me, . So it's, it's crazy. So there is a, there's a definitely a demand, there is definitely room for somebody to create a, a massive block booking platform around it.
[01:12:23] Definitely. And yeah, it's, it's a good prediction. I'm even more intrigued about Vacasa becoming an lta, but that's for another day,
[01:12:29] Will: another show. Yeah, I, I figured that's what Brandy was gonna ask, because that's been the one that we've, I I love the Steve Milo comment. Who, who said that? The chat. Yeah, mark.
[01:12:40] I love it. It was good . He's like, no, don't say it. Go ahead
[01:12:43] Brandy: Brandy. Yeah, it wasn't necessarily about them becoming an ota, but I can see that and that's definitely, uh, I'd love to get into that conversation. But it was more on them, you know, trying to get into the multi-family space, the apart hotel. Um, and I definitely think they're going to try to buy [01:13:00] urban operators.
[01:13:00] I have a very strong feeling that that is already in motion and there is probably some distressed operators out there that will take them up on that. So,
[01:13:09] Will: yeah. Yeah, builder buy is always the question. And I know Michael Golden and a couple of us actually always kind of talk about builder buy, I think what their acquisition team being let go mostly majority.
[01:13:21] Um, yeah, that's where I struggle with it is like buy or build. Are they gonna buy, Costa will not buy their own, you don't think so at all. Traded.
[01:13:30] Michael: It's two different, the return structures on real estate companies versus. What they're trying to trade at as a tech company. It's, that's why Marriott, Hyatt Hilton don't own properties.
[01:13:44] They spun off Host group is part of Marriott, but it's not under the publicly traded stock ticker. So no, they will not buy, uh, they might partner with a REIT and a REIT buys all the real [01:14:00] estate and they manage it. But yeah, I don't see them purchasing their own assets.
[01:14:05] Will: Yeah. Well, I'm, I'm passionate on the build part, so that would be my prediction and I'm happy to stick with that part.
[01:14:11] at least stick to your guns. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. Awesome. Anybody else got anything? Cool. Well, I do wanna say a quick thank you to everyone who joined on the panel. You guys are amazing. This has been super fun. It's rare to get us all in one room unless we're at a conference that we all happen to go to. So this is exciting.
[01:14:33] Again, appreciate you guys. And then to everyone who is tuned into the live, seriously, the, the comments and the, the messages I've, as I took my phone off of Do Not Disturb have been awesome. Thank you guys a lot. We, you know, kind of wanted to do something different and interesting and I think bringing different groups of people from short-term rentals to hotels, to even other places like Steve's got the best background with fine dining and of course the, the hotel side.
[01:14:59] I love [01:15:00] watching his, uh, hospitality mentor videos where he goes around and, and dives into these venues deeper. So, stuff like that. We wanted to keep doing this and so if you guys like this model, Let us know how we could keep doing it and we'll bring on new faces and names to the, the panels. But for any of you on this current round table right now, would you like to say anything to the audience before we end the live and head off for the rest of our day?
[01:15:26] Nope. Picture events.
[01:15:28] Mark: Go on. Picture events, Mike?
[01:15:29] Will: Yeah, picture events. Where's
[01:15:31] Mike: the event? Wealth com. What I the what I was gonna say was we, we had a lot of negatives on this. Don't let that scare you, right? Like if you listen to the whys, like buffet, like when people are fearful, be greedy. I'm going on a hunt this year.
[01:15:45] I'm telling you guys right now, and I'm calling my shot like I'm gonna expand a lot in 2023. So when people are fearful, be greedy. And when people are greedy, be fearful. So don't let that hold you. .
[01:15:57] Will: Hmm. That's good. I love it. [01:16:00] Well, that's a good note. Uh, I know there's a couple events, so I'm actually gonna just let, I, I know Mikey just say you didn't wanna pitch it, but we're gonna let you pitch it.
[01:16:08] Uh, so Stacy, go ahead with your virtual one leading into, I know Natalie's got the Level Up your listing summit, which I'll be seeing of, and I'm so excited for her, the only guy in a room full of women in the short term rentals. So it's gonna be, uh, shark Frenzy. I, I feel like, uh, in a, not a good way, probably, I'll probably get destroyed on stage, but all good.
[01:16:27] Um, I will let everyone just kick off from there and if you guys have anything else to add, would love to hear it. So go ahead Stacy. Kick it off.
[01:16:35] Stacy: Thank you Will. So yes, ladies, if you are interested in connecting with some amazing, amazing speakers, a few of which are on this panel right now, next week, um, go to s t r virtual summit.com and we would love to welcome you at a friend.
[01:16:53] So we're, we're, we launched a BOGO deal, buy one, get one. So, so many people are interested [01:17:00] in this short-term rental thing, but not quite sure about it or curious. So feel free to invite a friend or a family member to come with you. And, um, again, thank you all for putting this amazing panel together.
[01:17:12] Will: Of course.
[01:17:13] Love it. Natalie, go ahead. Leeway into, yeah, into
[01:17:17] Natalie: that. So one final pitch I've mentioned a few times, but Level Up Your Listing Summit. It's an all women's short-term rental summit, um, in Scottsdale, Arizona, February 27th, 28th and March 1st. Uh, Stacy is one of our speakers. Will is our mc and Mike's wife.
[01:17:32] Kristen will be talking about, um, she'll be on our design panel. So I can't wait for her to talk about all the themed fun designs they're doing. Um, so if you guys want level up your listing summit.com and you can use code round table 10 for 10% off your ticket.
[01:17:46] Will: I love that round table 10 Mike Wealth Con coming up March.
[01:17:51] Yeah,
[01:17:51] Mike: so the Sst r Wealth conference, uh, it's gonna be March 20th to the 22nd. I was actually just checking. [01:18:00] We literally have, we have a thousand seats for this thing. We have 35 left, like no exaggeration. So if you're going to go, I'd highly encourage you, cuz I know Bill's gonna fire off an email after he hears that and he's just gonna finish selling it out cuz that's what he does.
[01:18:16] And so there's literally 35 seats left. I just checked the dashboard. Um, it's gonna be awesome. I'm super pumped. Um, it was a lot of fun last year and we we're gonna do it bigger and better this year. A lot of my friends are coming back and, uh, kudos to, to our boy over here. Uh, Mark Simpson hooked me up with an intro to Mike Malowitz, who we landed for our keynote speaker, author, prophet, first and Pumpkin Plan, and a ton of books that I absolutely love.
[01:18:43] So Mike's gonna be keying that and, um, You guys can check it [email protected]. We have an incredible lineup. Uh, a lot of people that are up here and, um, the networking is just a blast, man. Like it, we have a lot of fun. We learn a lot and, um, there's gonna be a thousand other hosts there, [01:19:00] so super, super excited.
[01:19:02] Will: You gonna be able to whip up, uh, a code like Natalie did or, or are we gonna leave the listeners hanging use promo
[01:19:08] Mark: card mark. He doesn't need 1 35 tickets. He use promo card mark. Promo card Mark. Let's just see what happens. .
[01:19:15] Will: I love it. How about Michael Golden and Steve Turk. Any events you guys are excited to attend or go to this year?
[01:19:21] Are you putting on a conference? Am I missing something or are you guys just gonna tune in for the, for the good stuff?
[01:19:28] Michael: Nope. Not putting on any conferences that I know of. . ,
[01:19:32] Will: okay. Just making sure. You never know. How about you Steve? You're muted, my friend. I'm
[01:19:40] Steve: excited to see if I can at least attend, uh, One of these this year.
[01:19:43] I know, like I'm not invited to the all women's ones, so what kind of wipes out the ones I can can go, you can still come, Dave. We'll let you in , we'll sneak you in. Well, I'm excited to get more and more involved this year in the, in the short term rental world. So I'm excited to, to see some of you out there live.
[01:19:56] Will: Awesome. Well, appreciate all of you guys. Once again, thank you so much for [01:20:00] tuning in for all of our live viewers and listeners and this amazing round table. Maybe we'll come back at the end of the year and see what came true and what didn't. So excited to, uh, continue on and thank you guys again having
[01:20:11] Mark: a blast.
[01:20:12] Gonna get it
[01:20:12] Will: on the Bruce Lee podcast. Bruce Lee. Let Bruce Lee cuz it's so hard on the tee, is loose leaf picking up those rhymes. Don't write it, just do it loosely.
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